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u1hcw9nx 2 hours ago [-]
I would like to see the numbers.
If Nvidia sells hardware for $100B with 75% cross margin, and provides $50 billion in backstop for that same hardware, it would be still be nicely profitable deal ($25B) if the backstop capacity would be a total write-off recovering $0. Reselling that capacity in some large discount below already low backstop price would increase the profits.
It's all those pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and Softbank getting into that $500 billion deal that will be hurt.
ColdStream 9 minutes ago [-]
Pretty much, I have said it for a while now, Softbank and Oracle are the ones I would be worried about. Both of them have put their companies wealth behind this, if it goes down so will they.
throwaway27448 12 seconds ago [-]
A better world is just a few steps away
NewJazz 2 hours ago [-]
Businesses aim to make the most profit possible with their resources. If they can make a 25% margin that is good, but if they can turn around sell thr same thing for a 50% margin, that is much better.
Basically what i am saying is maybe there is a better buyer than openai.
behnamoh 59 minutes ago [-]
In other words: the investments that were never going to happen are not going to happen.
2 hours ago [-]
Noaidi 2 hours ago [-]
The Möbius strip of AI financing continues…
sidewndr46 33 minutes ago [-]
it seems much more like Relativity by M. C. Escher where no one is quite sure how to exit without bringing everything down with them?
formvoltron 1 hours ago [-]
wobble wobble
nian2326076 2 hours ago [-]
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2773738384 2 hours ago [-]
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gymbeaux 25 minutes ago [-]
What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”
martinald 13 minutes ago [-]
Nothing would really change IMO? 99% of users don't have anything like a RTX5070 (mobile especially).
Even if it did, it still doesn't make much economic sense running a model locally vs on a datacentre.
For example, I managed to just about squeeze a Q2 quant of Qwen 3.7 27b on my 9070XT. I get around 60tps decode (slightly faster prefill). _but_ it uses 300W of power to do so. At UK electricity rates of 30c/kWh this works out at something like 42c/MTok. I can get far far better models on openrouter cheaper than that, plus I'm not horrendously constrained on context length.
nl 15 minutes ago [-]
It seems very very unlikely that an Opus 5 matching local model that runs on a 5070 will be released within the next 5 years (I don't want to say "ever").
If it does happen then NVidia will sell a lot of 5070s though!
d_sem 18 minutes ago [-]
I guess I'd like to understand the technical reasoning on how you think an how an Opus 5 could over time fit on an RTX 5070.
If Nvidia sells hardware for $100B with 75% cross margin, and provides $50 billion in backstop for that same hardware, it would be still be nicely profitable deal ($25B) if the backstop capacity would be a total write-off recovering $0. Reselling that capacity in some large discount below already low backstop price would increase the profits.
It's all those pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and Softbank getting into that $500 billion deal that will be hurt.
Basically what i am saying is maybe there is a better buyer than openai.
Even if it did, it still doesn't make much economic sense running a model locally vs on a datacentre.
For example, I managed to just about squeeze a Q2 quant of Qwen 3.7 27b on my 9070XT. I get around 60tps decode (slightly faster prefill). _but_ it uses 300W of power to do so. At UK electricity rates of 30c/kWh this works out at something like 42c/MTok. I can get far far better models on openrouter cheaper than that, plus I'm not horrendously constrained on context length.
If it does happen then NVidia will sell a lot of 5070s though!